Reasonable mortgage rates have turned autumn into a surprisingly good time to buy or refinance a home.

They've fallen more than half-a-point since peaking at nearly 6.75% in late April, retreating back to where they were most of last winter.

Our weekly surveys of major lenders shows the average cost for a 30-year fixed-rate loan -- the most popular way to pay for a house has been below 6.5% since late August

In fact, those loans are averaging just 6.24% this week and the average rate on a 15-year mortgage has dipped below 6% again.

And remember, that's the average cost. Our charts comparing rates from hundreds of lenders show many 30-year mortgages for much less than 6% with fees of $1,000 or less.

There's little reason to think rates will increase this winter.

The most recent forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association says 30-year rates should average about 6.3% or 6.4% through the rest of the year.

Freddie Mac, the government-chartered company that buys, packages and resells mortgages to investors, expects them to remain at around 6.5% next year

Considering how much home loans have cost over the past 20 years, that's very affordable. Fixed-rate mortgages cost a little less than they did last fall, considerably less than the 7% to 8% we were paying in the mid- to late-'90s, and no where near the double-digit rates of the '80s and early '90s.

Indeed, we're paying just a point or so more than summer 2003, when rates bottomed out at 5.28%. That was the lowest average rate Interest.com (and its ink-on-paper predecessors) has recorded since its weekly survey or major lenders began in 1985.

In this week's survey:

• 30-year fixed-rate loans averaged 6.24%.

   

• 15-year loans fixed-rate averaged 5.98%.

   

• 30-year jumbo loans (for more than $417,000) averaged 6.47%.

Introductory rates for adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, remain as much as three-tenths-of-a-point more expensive than last fall. Those 30-year loans offering a fixed rate for:

• One year, averaged 5.87% last week.

   

• Five years, averaged 6.13%.

Here's what that means when you reach for your checkbook if you took out a 30-year, fixed-rate loan for $150,000 at:

• Today's rate of 6.24%, your monthly payment of principal and interest only would be $923.

   

• Last November's rate of 6.42%, your payment would have been $940 or $17 a month more.

  June 2003's record low of 5.28%, your payment would have been $831 or $92 a month less.

It's important to note that the difference between fixed-rate and ARMs has become much smaller than normal.

The initial monthly payments on that $150,000 loan with the average five-year ARM would be $912 -- or just $11 a month less than payments for a 30-year fixed rate loan. For many buyers that isn't enough to risk higher rates, and higher mortgage payments, five years from now.

All home loans have cost less the second half of the year because the Federal Reserve Bank ended a two-year campaign to fight a worrisome spike in inflation by pushing interest rates higher.

Here's how that's supposed to work:

The Fed acts as a kind of super bank, lending money to all the commercial banks we deal with everyday. So it begins charging those banks more to borrow money.

Those banks pass that cost along to us by raising rates on virtually every type of consumer loan from mortgages to credit cards. We respond by spending less, making it more difficult for everyone from furniture makers to hair stylists to raise prices.

Voila! Inflation is back under control.

Mortgage rates peaked at 6.93% in late June, just as the Federal Reserve pushed interest rates up for the 17th time in two years.

But home loans began to get less expensive in July when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told a Senate committee that all those rate hikes seemed to be working. We were spending less. The economy was slowing and inflation would surely follow.

Mortgage rates continued to decline after the Fed's rate-setting committee met in early August and, for the first time in more than two years, decided not to raise rates again.

Similar decisions at the committee's September and October meetings helped mortgage rates to stabilize between 6.25% and 6.5% all fall.

There's little reason to think the Fed would resume raising rates anytime soon because the most recent reports indicate Bernanke is right and inflation is indeed slowing.

The Consumer Price Index fell 0.5% in September and October, led by a sharp drop in energy costs. As a result, consumer prices are rising at an annualized rate of 2.4% so far this year, well below the 3.4% increase for all of 2005.

So here's our best snapshot of what's going on in the housing market right now:

When the cost of borrowing money was at or near record lows, sellers could demand higher and higher prices for their homes, and buyers could afford to pay them.

As borrowing became more expensive, buyers couldn't afford to pay as much as they did last year, or just a few months ago. As a result prices are leveling off all across the country and falling slightly in some places.

But these are mortgage rates we can definitely live with. If buyers and sellers temper their expectations just a bit, life can go on very nicely.

BretlinFloridaMortgage.com -  Home Loans from $100,000 to $15,000,000 - Conventional, Non-conforming, FHA and VA Home Financing for  Real Estate Purchase or Refinance. Apply online or contact us at 904-226-0648 or toll free at 1-800-572-5964 -  Email: info@bretlinfloridamortgage.com

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